Earnings Options Strategy Analyzer

Find the Best Earnings Trades – Ranked by Statistical Edge

Find the Best Earnings Options Trades

Enter any ticker above and we'll automatically find the highest-edge earnings plays — ranked by probability, IV crush risk, and historical accuracy.

This earnings options analyzer evaluates every major strategy — earnings straddles, strangles, debit spreads, credit spreads, and iron condors — using the stock's implied move, historical post-earnings moves, and IV crush risk. It ranks strategies by statistical edge so you can instantly see whether buying or selling premium has the better expected value. Compare the implied move vs historical move, estimate IV crush impact, and find the best lotto trade with the highest probability of a 3× return.

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How to Trade Earnings Options

Earnings season is one of the most active and opportunity-rich periods for options traders. Every quarter, hundreds of companies report financial results, and the uncertainty around those results inflates implied volatility — creating both opportunities and risks. Understanding how to trade earnings options starts with two core concepts: the implied move and IV crush.

The earnings expected move is the market's consensus estimate of how far a stock will move after reporting. It is derived from the implied volatility (IV) of near-term options. A stock with a 10% implied move is telling you the options market expects a swing of roughly ±10% when earnings hit. The first question every earnings trader should ask is: does the stock historically move more or less than what's implied?

IV crush is the collapse of implied volatility immediately after earnings are announced. Before the event, elevated IV inflates option premiums. Once the uncertainty is resolved — regardless of whether the earnings beat, missed, or the stock moved — IV drops sharply. This is why long options buyers can be right about direction and still lose money. A call buyer who was long NVDA ahead of earnings might see the stock jump 7%… but if IV drops 40%, the option may still expire worth less than what was paid.

When to buy premium: Consider buying straddles or calls/puts when the historical move consistently exceeds the implied move — meaning the market is underpricing the expected reaction. This creates positive expected value for long premium strategies. Always verify that the implied move vs historical move ratio favors buyers.

When to sell premium: If the historical move is typically smaller than the implied move — meaning the stock rarely exceeds what the market prices in — selling premium via iron condors or credit spreads has a statistical edge. The IV crush after earnings works in your favor, collapsing the value of the options you sold.

Common earnings strategies include straddles, strangles, debit spreads, and selling premium with defined risk. Each has different risk/reward profiles, breakevens, and sensitivity to IV crush. This analyzer evaluates all of them automatically and ranks them by Earnings Trade Score so you know which strategy has the highest edge before you commit capital.

Earnings Straddle Strategy

An earnings straddle involves buying both a call and a put at the same strike (typically at-the-money) with the same expiration. The profit zone is any move larger than the combined premium paid. Straddles are direction-neutral — they profit from a big move in either direction.

Pros: Benefits from large post-earnings moves in either direction. No directional bet required. Cons: IV crush is the main enemy — after earnings, both the call and put lose value as IV collapses. The stock must move more than the total premium paid just to break even. Best when: The stock has a strong historical tendency to move beyond its implied move, and current IV is not excessively elevated relative to past earnings cycles.

Earnings Strangle Strategy

An earnings strangle involves buying an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Because both options are OTM, strangles cost less than straddles but require a larger move to profit. This makes them higher-risk, higher-reward plays.

Pros: Lower cost than a straddle. Defined maximum loss. Cons: Wider breakevens — the stock must move significantly beyond both OTM strikes. IV crush still erodes premium aggressively. Best when: You expect a very large move (e.g., a stock known for outsized earnings reactions) and want to reduce upfront cost vs a straddle.

Selling Options Before Earnings (Credit Spreads & Iron Condors)

Selling premium before earnings — via iron condors, credit spreads, or naked options — benefits from IV crush. As soon as earnings are released and uncertainty resolves, IV collapses and the options you sold lose value rapidly. This is the "IV crush trade."

Pros: IV crush works in your favor. High-probability win rate when the stock stays within its implied move. Cons: Catastrophic loss potential if the stock makes an outsized move beyond your short strikes. Unlimited risk for naked options. Best when: Historical moves are consistently smaller than the implied move, and the stock has a high probability of staying within the expected range.

Debit Spreads for Earnings

A debit spread involves buying one option and selling another further OTM on the same expiration. For directional earnings plays, this reduces the cost (and IV crush impact) vs a naked long option. Bull call spreads and bear put spreads are common examples.

Pros: Lower cost than a single long option. IV crush partially cancels between the long and short leg. Defined maximum loss. Cons: Capped upside — you give up gains beyond the short strike. Requires a directional call on the earnings move. Best when: You have a directional bias (bullish or bearish) and want to reduce the IV crush risk of a naked long call or put.

Earnings Trading FAQ

The earnings expected move is the market's implied forecast for how much a stock will move after it reports. It is derived from near-term implied volatility: Expected Move = IV × Stock Price × √(DTE/365). The options market inflates IV before earnings to price in the uncertainty. Comparing this implied move to the stock's historical post-earnings moves tells you whether options are cheap, fair, or overpriced — and whether buying or selling premium has the statistical edge.

Implied move accuracy varies by stock and sector. On average, the actual post-earnings move exceeds the implied move roughly 50–55% of the time. Large-cap stocks with consistent earnings patterns (like Apple or Microsoft) tend to be more accurately priced than smaller or more volatile names. The Historical Move vs Implied Move chart in this tool shows you the track record for any ticker, so you can see exactly how accurate the market's pricing has been over the past several earnings cycles.

IV crush is the rapid collapse of implied volatility immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, IV is inflated to price in the event risk. Once results are published — regardless of whether the news is good or bad — that uncertainty resolves and IV drops sharply (often 30–60%). This collapse in IV erodes option premium, which is why long options buyers can be correct about direction yet still lose money. Spreads and iron condors are more resistant to IV crush because the effect largely cancels between the two legs.

Buying options before earnings can be profitable when the stock consistently moves more than the implied move — but it requires the actual move to overcome IV crush at expiry. Long straddles and strangles profit only when the realized move significantly exceeds the implied move. This tool calculates the expected value for long strategies using historical move data and IV crush estimates, so you can objectively assess whether buying premium has a statistical edge for a specific ticker.

Earnings straddles are profitable when the actual move exceeds the total premium paid (both the call and put combined). Historically, straddles are profitable roughly 40–50% of the time on average — because IV crush erodes both options' value even when the stock moves. Straddles work best on stocks with a strong historical tendency to make outsized moves relative to their implied move. The Historical Backtest section of this tool shows you the actual win rate for straddles on any specific ticker.