Options Trading Calculator – See If Your Trade Is Actually Profitable
Compare market price vs probability-weighted value before you place a trade
OptionEV Trade Value Calculator
See if your options trade has a real edge before you place itAnalysis Results
Financial Details
Market Data
Trade Reality Check
REQUIRED VS EXPECTED MOVE
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VOLATILITY SNAPSHOT
TRADE SUMMARY
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Profit Zone Heatmap
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What This Options Trading Calculator Does
This options trading calculator shows whether an options trade is actually profitable by calculating its expected value (EV), probability of profit, and edge. Unlike basic payoff calculators that only display max profit and max loss, this tool weights every possible outcome by its probability — revealing what you're expected to make or lose over time.
The calculator supports vertical spreads (call debit, put debit, call credit, put credit), iron condors, iron butterflies, covered calls, cash-secured puts, and naked options. Real-time market data provides current implied volatility and expected move calculations for accurate probability estimates.
Why Expected Value Matters in Options Trading
Expected value represents the average profit or loss of a trade if repeated many times under identical conditions. A positive EV options trade is expected to make money over time, while a negative EV trade will lose money — even if it wins frequently.
Critically, positive EV does not guarantee profit on any single trade. Options trading is based on probability distributions, not certainties. Traders use EV to compare opportunities objectively, size positions properly, and build portfolios with favorable long-term risk-adjusted returns. Knowing when to hold or exit a trade also depends on probability-based thinking.
How OptionEV Is Different From Basic Options Trading Calculators
Most options trading calculators are misleading. They show what you could make at expiration, but not how likely you are to make it — or whether the trade is profitable over time.
OptionEV fixes this by using probability-weighted outcomes:
- Probability-weighted results: Uses implied volatility and expected move to estimate the likelihood of different price levels, not just expiration extremes.
- Expected value & edge: Shows whether the trade has a statistical advantage or disadvantage as a percentage of capital at risk.
- True probability of profit: Calculates how often the trade is expected to make money, not just its best-case payout.
- Trade-decision focus: Designed to determine whether a trade is worth taking, not just what could happen.
For more specialized analysis, explore our naked options risk analysis or review our advanced options trading tools.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expected value in options trading?
Expected value (EV) is the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes. For options trades, it accounts for how likely the underlying is to move to different price levels and the resulting profit or loss at each level. A positive EV means the trade is statistically favorable over time.
Are options trades actually profitable?
Options trading can be profitable when trades have positive expected value. Many popular strategies look attractive but lose money over time because their probabilities and payoffs are misaligned. This calculator helps identify which trades have real statistical edge.
Is a positive EV options trade guaranteed to be profitable?
No. A positive EV indicates a statistical edge, not a guaranteed outcome. Any individual trade can still lose money. The edge appears over a series of trades as favorable probabilities compound, which is why position sizing and risk management remain essential.
How is this different from an options payoff calculator?
Standard payoff calculators show profit or loss at expiration for different stock prices but don't weight outcomes by probability. This EV-based options trading calculator estimates how likely each outcome is using implied volatility, then calculates the weighted average result. It answers "is this trade worth taking?" rather than just "what are the possible outcomes?"