What is an earnings expected move?

The earnings expected move is the market's implied forecast for how much a stock will move after it reports earnings. It is calculated from the implied volatility (IV) of near-term options using the formula: Expected Move = IV × Stock Price × √(DTE/365). The options market essentially prices in the uncertainty of the earnings announcement by inflating IV before the event. Comparing the implied move to the stock's historical post-earnings moves tells you whether options are cheap, fair, or overpriced relative to how the stock typically reacts.

How accurate is the implied move before earnings?

Implied move accuracy varies by stock and earnings cycle. On average, the actual post-earnings move exceeds the implied move roughly 50–55% of the time — but the degree of the beat or miss matters just as much as the direction. Stocks with consistent historical earnings moves (like large-cap tech) tend to be more accurately priced than smaller-cap stocks with unpredictable reactions. The Historical Move vs Implied Move chart in this tool shows you whether a stock has historically beaten or missed its implied move, giving you a data-driven edge.

What is IV crush after earnings?

IV crush is the rapid collapse of implied volatility that occurs immediately after an earnings announcement. Before earnings, IV is inflated because the options market prices in the uncertainty of the event. Once earnings are released — regardless of whether the move is big or small — that uncertainty evaporates and IV drops sharply, often 30–60%. This crushes the value of long options (calls, puts, straddles) even if the stock moves in your direction. Spreads and iron condors are more resistant because IV crush affects both legs and largely cancels out.

Should you buy options before earnings?

Buying options (long premium) before earnings can be profitable if the stock moves more than the implied move priced by the market. The key risk is IV crush: even a large move may not overcome the premium lost when IV collapses. Long straddles and strangles profit only when the actual move significantly exceeds the implied move. Historically, stocks beat implied move about 50–55% of the time, but IV crush makes long premium a negative-expectancy strategy on average. This tool calculates expected value for both long and short strategies, helping you identify when buying premium has a genuine statistical edge.

Are earnings straddles profitable?

Earnings straddles — buying both a call and a put at the same strike — profit when the stock moves more than the combined premium paid (the breakeven). Historical data suggests straddles are profitable roughly 40–50% of the time, because IV crush erodes the value of both options even when the stock moves. For straddles to win, the actual move must significantly exceed the implied move. This tool's Historical Win Rate card shows you how often past straddles on the same stock would have been profitable, giving you a data-driven view before you place the trade.

OptionEV Strategy Optimizer

Find the Best Options Strategy for Any Stock – Ranked by Edge & Win Rate

Mode:

Analyze any stock — scenario simulator and weekly move distribution, no earnings required.

Compare options strategies. Analyze risk. Simulate profit and loss instantly. · No earnings event required. Works for any stock.

Option Strategy Optimizer & Trading Simulator

Analyze any stock and instantly compare 8 options strategies side-by-side to find the best trade for your forecast.

This option trading simulator ranks strategies like debit spreads, credit spreads, straddles, condors, and directional calls/puts based on expected value, historical stock moves, and volatility conditions — so you can choose the highest-edge setup before placing a trade.

Used by traders to identify the best options strategy for bullish, bearish, or neutral market views.

Strategies Ranked
by Win Rate

Weekly Move
Distribution

Scenario
Simulator

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Implied Move

Avg Historical Move

IV Crush Risk

Regime

Expiry: --
Next Earnings: --

Recommended Trades Positive EV First · Then Edge Score

Historical Earnings Moves

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Avg Absolute Move

Median Move

Max Move

Direction

-- up / -- down

Distribution Shape

Recent Earnings Moves

Date	Pre	Post	Move

Expected Move

Implied Move

Move ($)

Range: -- to --

IV Crush Risk

Est. ATM Premium Loss

IV Drop

Move to Offset

Pre-earnings IV--

Post-crush IV (est.)--

Move Probability

Run analysis to see data

Upcoming Earnings

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Weekly move distribution — last 10 completed weeks

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Avg Abs Move

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Best Week

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Worst Week

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% Up Weeks

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Expected Move

IV-implied · 1 week

Outcome Scenario Simulator — drag to see P/L at any move

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Stock Move

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Prob of this move

P/L is model-based using typical weekly option pricing relative to this stock's avg move — illustrative only. No IV crush applied.

Strategy	P/L	Return %	Max Risk

Recommended Strategies — ranked by historical win rate on this stock's weekly moves

Expected Move

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Avg Abs Move

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Move ($)

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Hist. Vol

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ATM IV (live)

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vs Hist. Vol —

Fetching…

Volatility Profile

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Weekly Std Dev

Avg up week —

Avg down week —

Largest up —

Largest down —

Best Lotto Trade

High Risk / High Reward — model-based, weekly expiry

Run an analysis to see the lotto trade.

10-Week Historical Backtest — simulated outcome per strategy type using actual weekly price moves

Ranked by risk-adjusted edge (Avg Return ÷ Max Risk), then return, then win rate.

Strategy	Wins / 10	Win Rate	Avg Weekly Return	Best when…

Win rates use the last 10 completed weekly close-to-close moves as the empirical distribution. No IV crush applied — normal-move assumptions only.

Weekly % Move — Last 10 Completed Weeks

Compare Options Strategies Side-by-Side

Most tools show one payoff graph at a time. This options strategy calculator lets you:

Analyze options for any stock
Compare debit spreads vs credit spreads
Simulate P&L at different price moves
Rank strategies by win rate and projected edge
Evaluate bullish, bearish, and neutral setups

Instead of guessing which option strategy to use, see them all at once.

How to Choose the Best Options Strategy for a Stock

Choosing the right options strategy depends on:

Your expected price move
The stock's historical volatility
Current implied volatility
Risk tolerance and capital constraints

Two traders can make the same directional call — and one profits while the other loses. The difference is structure.

This strategy optimizer analyzes those factors automatically so you can identify which options strategy statistically performs best for your outlook.

Option Trading Simulator: Model Potential Profit & Loss

The Outcome Scenario Simulator allows you to:

Drag to simulate any stock move
See P&L across 8 strategies instantly
Compare return %, max risk, and reward
Evaluate how volatility affects performance

This is not just an option price calculator — it's a full strategy comparison engine.

What Is the Best Options Strategy?

There is no single "best" options strategy. The optimal trade depends on market outlook, volatility conditions, and expected move magnitude.

Market Outlook	Strategy Type
Strong bullish	Long Call / Bull Call Spread
Moderate bullish	Bull Put Credit Spread
Strong bearish	Long Put / Bear Put Spread
Moderate bearish	Bear Call Credit Spread
Range-bound	Iron Condor / Credit Spread
Large move expected	Straddle

The key is matching strategy structure to expected move and volatility environment. This tool calculates that for you.

Analyze Options Based on Volatility and Expected Move

Every stock has:

A projected move range
A historical weekly move distribution
An implied volatility level
A probability profile

The OptionEV Strategy Optimizer analyzes these variables and ranks strategies by projected edge and win rate. This allows traders to:

Identify high-probability setups

Avoid overpriced premium

Compare debit vs credit strategies

Optimize structure before entry

Why Strategy Selection Matters More Than Direction

Many traders focus only on whether a stock will rise or fall. But option profitability depends on:

Magnitude of move
Volatility pricing
Structure selection
Defined risk vs unlimited exposure

Choosing the correct strategy for your expected move often matters more than predicting direction correctly. That's why comparing multiple strategies at once provides a structural edge.

Options Strategy Calculator for Any Stock

Use this options strategy calculator and simulator to:

Compare spreads and premium strategies
Model profit and loss instantly
Rank strategies by statistical edge
Analyze options before entering a trade

Whether you're deciding between a debit spread, credit spread, straddle, or condor — this tool helps you determine the best options strategy for your forecast.

Options Strategy FAQ

The best options strategy depends on three factors: your expected price move, the stock's historical volatility, and current implied volatility. If you expect a strong directional move, strategies like calls, puts, or debit spreads may fit. If you expect a range-bound move, credit spreads or iron condors may be more appropriate. The optimal strategy matches both your outlook and volatility conditions.

For a bullish view, common strategies include long calls, bull call spreads (debit spreads), or selling put spreads. Long calls offer unlimited upside but higher cost. Debit spreads reduce cost and limit risk. Selling put spreads benefits from moderate upside or sideways movement with higher probability.

The best choice depends on how large of a move you expect.

For a bearish outlook, traders often use long puts, bear put spreads, or call credit spreads. Long puts provide strong downside exposure but are sensitive to volatility. Bear put spreads reduce cost and risk. Call credit spreads benefit from limited downside movement and time decay.

Strategy selection depends on expected magnitude and volatility.

If a stock is expected to stay within a defined range, strategies that sell premium often perform best. Iron condors and credit spreads collect premium and benefit from time decay. These strategies work well when implied volatility is elevated and large moves are unlikely.

An implied move is the options market's projected price range for a stock over a specific period. It is derived from implied volatility and option pricing. Traders compare the implied move to historical average moves to determine whether options are overpriced or underpriced.

Whether to buy or sell options depends on volatility conditions and your expected move. Buying options works best when you expect a larger-than-priced move. Selling options may have an edge when implied volatility is elevated and the stock is likely to remain within its projected range.

There is no single best options strategy. The right strategy depends on market outlook, volatility levels, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Comparing multiple strategies side-by-side helps determine which setup has the strongest statistical edge.

Two traders may both predict a stock will rise, but one may buy calls while the other sells put spreads. If the move is small, the put spread seller may profit while the call buyer loses due to time decay. Strategy structure can matter more than direction.

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Outcome Scenario Simulator — drag to see P/L at any move

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Outcome Scenario Simulator — drag to see P/L at any move

Recommended Strategies — ranked by historical win rate on this stock's weekly moves

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What Is the Best Options Strategy?

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Why Strategy Selection Matters More Than Direction

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Options Strategy FAQ

How do I choose the best options strategy for a stock?

What is the best options strategy for a bullish outlook?

What is the best options strategy for a bearish outlook?

What is the best options strategy for a stock expected to stay in a range?

What is an implied move in options trading?

Should you buy or sell options?

Is there one "best" options strategy?

Why can two traders make the same call but get different results?

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