Analyze the true expected value of an options trade

Calculate EV, probability of profit, and edge in seconds

OptionEV Calculator
Real-time EV analysis with technical sentiment
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Options EV Calculator
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What This Options Expected Value Calculator Does

This tool calculates the expected value (EV), edge percentage, and probability of profit for options trades using probability-weighted outcomes. Unlike basic payoff calculators that only show max profit and max loss at expiration, this calculator estimates your statistical edge by weighting each possible outcome by its probability of occurring.

The calculator supports vertical spreads (call debit, put debit, call credit, put credit), iron condors, iron butterflies, covered calls, cash-secured puts, and naked options. Real-time market data provides current implied volatility and expected move calculations for accurate probability estimates.

Why Expected Value Matters in Options Trading

Expected value represents the average outcome of a trade if repeated many times under identical conditions. A positive EV trade has a statistical edge over time, while a negative EV trade is expected to lose money in the long run.

Critically, positive EV does not guarantee profit on any individual trade. Options trading involves probability distributions, not certainties. Traders use EV to compare opportunities objectively, size positions appropriately, and build portfolios with favorable risk-adjusted returns. Understanding when to hold or exit an options trade also requires probability-based thinking.

How OptionEV Is Different From Basic Payoff Calculators

Most options calculators show static payoff diagrams at expiration. While useful for visualizing max profit and max loss, they don't tell you the likelihood of achieving those outcomes or whether the trade has positive expected value.

  • Probability-weighted outcomes: Uses implied volatility and expected move to estimate the probability of various price levels, not just expiration extremes.
  • Edge percentage: Shows your statistical advantage (or disadvantage) as a percentage of capital at risk.
  • Probability of profit: Calculates the actual chance of making money, not just the theoretical max profit.
  • Trade decision focus: Designed for evaluating whether to enter a trade, not just visualizing what could happen.

For more specialized analysis, explore our naked options risk analysis or review our advanced options trading tools.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is expected value in options trading?

Expected value (EV) is the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes. For options, it accounts for the likelihood of the underlying moving to various price levels and the resulting profit or loss at each level. A positive EV means the trade is statistically favorable over many repetitions.

Is a positive EV options trade guaranteed to be profitable?

No. Positive EV indicates a statistical edge, not a guaranteed outcome. Any single trade can still lose money. The edge manifests over a series of trades where favorable probabilities compound. This is why position sizing and risk management remain essential even with high-EV trades.

How is this different from an options payoff calculator?

Standard payoff calculators show profit/loss at expiration for different stock prices but don't weight outcomes by probability. This EV calculator estimates how likely each outcome is using implied volatility, then calculates the weighted average result. It answers "is this trade worth taking?" rather than just "what are the possible outcomes?"